O‘ZBEKISTONDA EKSPORT HAJMIGA TA’SIR ETUVCHI OMILLARNI ARDL MODELI ASOSIDA EKONOMETRIK TAHLILINI BAHOLASH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55439/INS/vol1_iss6/91Ключевые слова:
Eksport hajmi, makroiqtisodiy indekatorlar, logistika infratuzilmasi, valyuta kursi, inflyatsiya darajasi, investitsiya amaliyoti, ekonometrik modellashtirishtirish.Аннотация
Maqolada eksport amaliyoti va ta'sir etuvchi omillarni o'rganish uchun ekonometrik modellar yordamida ilmiy tahlil o'tkazildi. Tadqiqotda koʻp oʻzgaruvchan vaqt seriyalari maʼlumotlariga, xususan Markaziy bank va Jahon bankining Oʻzbekiston Respublikasi Prezidenti huzuridagi Statistika agentligi (www.stat.uz) tomonidan taqdim etilgan 23 yillik koʻrsatkichlariga asoslangan avtoregressiv taqsimlangan kechikish (ARDL) modellaridan foydalanildi. Tadqiqotda ARDL modeliga asoslangan vaqtli qatorlarning grafik matritsasi ishlab chiqildi, bog'liq va mustaqil o'zgaruvchilar uchun korrelyatsiya matritsasini hamda statsionarlikni baholash uchun birlik-ildiz testlari tekshirishldi. Shuningdek, kointegratsiya uchun bog'langan testlar va ARDL modeli regressiya tenglamasini shakllantirishni o'z ichiga oldi. ARDL modelining haqiqiyligi regressiya tenglamasi va Cusum diagnostik testidagi muhim atamalar uchun Gauss Markov testi orqali baholandi. Tadqiqotda muallif yondashuvlari va takliflari keltirilgan.
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