TURAR-JOY KOʻCHMAS MULKINI GEDONIK MODELLASHTIRISHDA FUNKSIONAL SHAKL TANLOVI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55439/INS/vol3_iss5/508##article.subject##:
gedonik model, funksional shakl, Boks-Koks almashtirishi, ommaviy baholash, elastiklik, eʼlon narxlari, kross-validatsiya, Termiz.##article.abstract##
Maqolada turar-joy koʻchmas mulkining gedonik narx modelida funksional shakl tanlovi masalasi Termiz shahri bozori maʼlumotida empirik tekshiriladi. Telegram guruhlari va OLX platformasidan yigʻilgan eʼlonlar takrorlardan tozalangandan soʻng tanlama 315 noyob kuzatuvni tashkil etdi. Chiziqli, yarim-logarifmik, log-logarifmik va Boks-Koks spetsifikatsiyalari yagona omillar toʻplamida baholanib, Ramsey RESET testi, diagnostik sinovlar va besh boʻgʻinli kross-validatsiya orqali qiyoslandi. Boks-Koks parametrining bahosi 0,57 ga teng chiqdi va uning 95 foizli ishonch oraligʻi (0,39–0,76) ham logarifmik, ham chiziqli shaklni statistik jihatdan rad etadi. Bu natija barcha spetsifikatsiya variantlarida va vaqt nazoratisiz ham saqlanadi. Shu bilan birga tanlamadan tashqari bashorat aniqligi boʻyicha toʻrt shakl amalda farqsiz boʻlib, oʻrtacha mutlaq foiz xatosi 25,6 foizdan 27,2 foizgacha oraliqda yotadi va soddalashtirilgan etalon modeldan sezilarli ustunlik kuzatilmaydi. Shundan kelib chiqib, funksional shakl tanlovi koeffitsiyentlarni talqin qilish uchun muhim, bashorat aniqligi uchun esa maʼlumot sifati hal qiluvchi omil ekani asoslanadi. Metodologik hissa sifatida ijtimoiy tarmoq eʼlonlarida takrorlanish ulushi 97 foizga yetishi oʻlchandi va dublikatlarni tozalash gedonik tahlilning majburiy bosqichi sifatida asoslandi.
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